Message From Deadly Texas Flood Disaster: You're On Your Own
Christian Camp Located On Banks Of River In "Flash Flood Alley"
"A History Of Monstrous And Devastating Flash Floods"
"It's all about personal accountability. You're responsible for your own life, your family's life, the lives of your children."~~~ Dub Thomas, Emergency Management Coordinator, Kerr County Texas (at time 4:40)
"Whether you are at a home you have lived in your entire life, or at a vacation cottage, understanding your flood risk and being connected to emergency warnings is essential" (@ time 5:35)
"Our area has a history of monstrous and devastating flash floods"
"Visitors to our area are particularly vulnerable to being caught unprepared for flash flooding because they are not connected to local emergency warning programs, like Kerr County's Code Red."
“If you own property in Kerr County you can be a part of Code Red”
[Update: 7/7/25 - The NY Times finally gets the story right by focusing on Kerr County Emergency Management failures, but they make it a cost issue, not an ideological issue:
Rural Kerr County can't afford a flood warning system in "Flash Flood Alley"? After deadly floods in 1978 and 1987? And they still won't after this flood? WTF?How much do they spend on Church construction and maintenance? Pro life? ~~~ end update]
No doubt, there is already a lot of finger pointing going on after the deadly flash floods in Central Texas.
Texas officials are pointing fingers at the National Weather Service for allegedly inaccurate forecasts and lack of timely warnings.
Many are pointing fingers at Trump's budget and personnel cuts to the National Weather Service and NOAA who provide the science and monitoring networks relied on to produce accurate forecasts.
Some are highlighting climate change and extreme weather for the heavy rainfall that produced the flood.
None of these claims accurately focuses on the real underlying causes.
The region impacted by the floods is known as "flash flood alley":
The Colorado River flows through the Texas Hill Country, an area known as “Flash Flood Alley’’ because it has one of the greatest risks for flash floods in the United States. The region is prone to flash floods because of its steep terrain, shallow soil and unusually high rainfall rates. ...~~~ ("Managing Floods In Flash Flood Alley")
Flash floods regularly occur there, particularly along the Guadalupe River.
Watch this video "Be Flood Aware" to get a clear scientific understanding of why the region is so prone to flash floods. It was prepared by the Kerr County, Texas Office of Emergency Management. Each County Emergency Management Plan is supervised by the State Office and submitted to FEMA as a condition of receiving FEMA disaster assistance funds.
But you'll get a lot more than scientific information in that video.
You will get a government philosophy: you're on your own: (a screen shot from the video makes that abundantly clear)
The camp where many children died was located on the banks of the highly flash flood prone Guadalupe River - take look:
The camp should never have been allowed to locate and operate there.
But because it has operated for decades, the camp owners - a mom and pop operation - should have been required to have special flash flood warning technology and management programs in place:
Agnes Stacy and her husband, Pop Stacy purchased the camp in 1939. Agnes Stacy had close ties to the camp after sending her daughter, Anne, there and later becoming a director at the facility in 1934. Today, Agnes' grandson Dick Eastland and his wife, Tweety Eastland, serve as executive directors of Camp Mystic Guadalupe River and Camp Mystic Cypress Lake.
The Eastland family has become the fourth generation of operators of the camp with Dick and Tweety's sons and daughter-in-laws serving as camp directors.
But that apparently was not the case - you're on your own in Texas.
And the camp's philosophy and program are Christian in nature, with no science focus, so it is unlikely that the camp directors, parents and campers had any understanding or awareness of flash flood risks:
Established in 1926, Camp Mystic focuses on three goals every summer for those in attendance — be a better person for being at Mystic, let Mystic bring out the best in them and grow spiritually.
The private summer camp aims to "provide young girls with a wholesome Christian atmosphere in which they can develop outstanding personal qualities and self-esteem." The camp hosts sessions in two to four week spans over the course of the summer beginning in May.
Campers participate in more than 30 activities including, but not limited to aerobics, archery, basketball and arts and crafts. Girls can attend the camp only after finishing the second grade.
So there it is, the view from death in Texas: An Individualist anti-government "you're on your own" philosophy; no land use restrictions; no mandatory safety regulations; and a Christian anti-science worldview.
Yes Bill, I was wondering about some of the same issues you raised - and questions too.
From a NY Times account, quoting from one flood gauge on the river: river rose from "three feet to 34 feet in about 90 minutes according to a river gauge near the town of Comfort, Texas."
If that's true, even if you got a bus to evacuate in advance, it might not have gotten out of danger. One hour and half to rise to 34 feet...I'd be very surprised if any of the 25 or so missing made it out under that type of catastrophic, flash rise. If these possibilities were were known, then keeping a camp at the river's edge was a huge gamble.
I'm away from home and I've not seen the news, Bill - but the way you have written up this report makes a lot of sense - a perfect storm of Trump, climate-change denial and fundamentalist Christian nonsense.